President Obama laid out the goal of energy independence in his State of the Union address. Americans have been saying that we need this since the 1970's.
I believe energy independence is not a realistic goal. Energy diversity is a much more attainable goal and achieves the same results. We don't need to produce all of our energy ourselves. We just need to diversify our energy sources to dilute pricing/political power in any specific energy area such as oil.
For all our fears about importing oil from the Middle East, we only import about 10% of our oil from the Middle East or about 2 million barrels a day out of 20 million barrels of oil a day that the U.S. needs. We're already producing 668,000 barrels a day of ethanol. What if we could get that up to 2 million barrels a day and replace the oil from the Middle East. I don't think we need to replace Middle East oil, just keep pressure on the market with diversity.
Thursday, February 26, 2009
Wednesday, February 25, 2009
Stimulating Environments May Help Alzheimer Patients Regain Memories
PBS Article: Of Mice and Memory (You will need to search for mice in the page as its one of several different articles on the page.)
This article describes observation of some Alzheimer patients and experiments with mice that seem to indicate that more mentally stimulating environments can help the brain regain memories that have previously been lost.
This article describes observation of some Alzheimer patients and experiments with mice that seem to indicate that more mentally stimulating environments can help the brain regain memories that have previously been lost.
Friday, February 20, 2009
Interesting item...
Click on the picture for a larger image.
Above is a picture of the largest cylindrical aquarium in the world at the Radisson SAS Hotel in Berlin. The aquarium contains 2,500 tropical fish.
My take on the financial crisis
Starting in 2002, the U.S. Congress started putting pressure on lenders to provide mortgage loans to people who would normally not qualify for a mortgage. The Congress strongly suggested that the lenders were redlining specific neighborhoods and discriminating against certain groups of people. It was suggested that lenders might need to be investigated and/or new laws created to stop this discriminatory practice.
The lenders then invented a way they thought would accomplish the task and be "safe" by pooling subprime mortgages with prime mortgages and then dividing them into liquid securities (CDO's).
At about the same time there was a growing ton of money slushing around the world that was driving interest rates down. The money investors (your 401K, pensions, etc.) wanted higher rates on their investments but the supply couldn't meet the demand so rates kept falling. Then the CDO was born which could offer 1-2% higher interest than everything else. Looking back the subprimes should have made the CDOs offer 6-7% higher rates, but the abundance of money kept them low. Also, the rating agencies pronounced them safer in the CDO's therefore a higher premium wasn't needed.
The subprime mortgage borrowers saw their chance to get a house, an unbelievable opportunity. Many took the mortgage and didn't pay much attention to the details. The additional new buyers in the market then drove house prices up which made the subprimes look ever safer both for the borrower and the investors.
The banks loved it because they could sell the mortgages off to investment houses who then packaged and sold them as CDO's to world investors. The banks didn't have to keep risky mortages on their books and they got to collect the fees for receiving the mortgage payments. They serviced the mortgages but did not own them. The investment houses made money on the sale of CDO's. The world investors (your 401k, pension, city government, etc.) got 1% better interest for "no extra risk". The subprime borrowers got a house, the American dream. Congress accomplished it's goal of more people in homes. It was a win for everyone. Why would anyone not want to do it.
Unfortunately, the ridiculous initial low rates on the subprime mortgages started resetting and subprime borrowers found they could not handle the large increases. The foreclosures started increasing and the banks were soon discovering they didn't have enough cash to cover the losses. The banks started worring about loaning money to other banks so they stopped. This froze up the credit markets for everything (houses, cars, business loans, etc.). Businesses discovered that they couldn't fund their normal operations. Fear gripped everyone. Businesses started cutting employees. Employees became fearful. Everyone is cutting back. Home values fell, job losses started prime mortgages to start failing. So here we are.
Who is guilty for this mess? The answer is everyone either directly or indirectly.
Subprime borrowers for not understanding their mortgages.
Lenders for not making sure the borrowers understood their mortgages and for underestimating the risk to investors.
Government for pressuring for subprime mortgages and not thinking about what lenders and markets had known better for over 70 years. You don't give mortgages to people who can't afford them.
Investors like you for wanting a better than 3% return on your investments so you could have that nice retirement.
So there we are. We're all implicity or explicitly guilty and we all need to realize that we're going to have losses. That's just the way it is.
I think everything will resolve itself faster if we just face the losses whatever they will be and then move forward. All these goverment actions to try to prevent the losses as much as possible will just drag the pain and fear out for years.
p.s. My 401K is now a 101K. ;-)
The lenders then invented a way they thought would accomplish the task and be "safe" by pooling subprime mortgages with prime mortgages and then dividing them into liquid securities (CDO's).
At about the same time there was a growing ton of money slushing around the world that was driving interest rates down. The money investors (your 401K, pensions, etc.) wanted higher rates on their investments but the supply couldn't meet the demand so rates kept falling. Then the CDO was born which could offer 1-2% higher interest than everything else. Looking back the subprimes should have made the CDOs offer 6-7% higher rates, but the abundance of money kept them low. Also, the rating agencies pronounced them safer in the CDO's therefore a higher premium wasn't needed.
The subprime mortgage borrowers saw their chance to get a house, an unbelievable opportunity. Many took the mortgage and didn't pay much attention to the details. The additional new buyers in the market then drove house prices up which made the subprimes look ever safer both for the borrower and the investors.
The banks loved it because they could sell the mortgages off to investment houses who then packaged and sold them as CDO's to world investors. The banks didn't have to keep risky mortages on their books and they got to collect the fees for receiving the mortgage payments. They serviced the mortgages but did not own them. The investment houses made money on the sale of CDO's. The world investors (your 401k, pension, city government, etc.) got 1% better interest for "no extra risk". The subprime borrowers got a house, the American dream. Congress accomplished it's goal of more people in homes. It was a win for everyone. Why would anyone not want to do it.
Unfortunately, the ridiculous initial low rates on the subprime mortgages started resetting and subprime borrowers found they could not handle the large increases. The foreclosures started increasing and the banks were soon discovering they didn't have enough cash to cover the losses. The banks started worring about loaning money to other banks so they stopped. This froze up the credit markets for everything (houses, cars, business loans, etc.). Businesses discovered that they couldn't fund their normal operations. Fear gripped everyone. Businesses started cutting employees. Employees became fearful. Everyone is cutting back. Home values fell, job losses started prime mortgages to start failing. So here we are.
Who is guilty for this mess? The answer is everyone either directly or indirectly.
Subprime borrowers for not understanding their mortgages.
Lenders for not making sure the borrowers understood their mortgages and for underestimating the risk to investors.
Government for pressuring for subprime mortgages and not thinking about what lenders and markets had known better for over 70 years. You don't give mortgages to people who can't afford them.
Investors like you for wanting a better than 3% return on your investments so you could have that nice retirement.
So there we are. We're all implicity or explicitly guilty and we all need to realize that we're going to have losses. That's just the way it is.
I think everything will resolve itself faster if we just face the losses whatever they will be and then move forward. All these goverment actions to try to prevent the losses as much as possible will just drag the pain and fear out for years.
p.s. My 401K is now a 101K. ;-)
Wednesday, February 18, 2009
Say what?
"If these conditions do not hold -- if nobody outside Washington is really paying attention to the substance of the bill, if the true costs . . . are buried in phony accounting and understated by a trillion dollars or so -- the majority party can begin every negotiation by asking for 100% of what it wants, go on to concede 10%, and then accuse any member of the minority party who fails to support this 'compromise' of being 'obstructionist.'"
from the 2006 book "The Audacity of Hope" by President Obama
I don't think I could describe any better what just happened with the stimulus bill.
Is his quote a critique or a battle plan? Looks like the latter.
from the 2006 book "The Audacity of Hope" by President Obama
I don't think I could describe any better what just happened with the stimulus bill.
Is his quote a critique or a battle plan? Looks like the latter.
Tuesday, February 17, 2009
Am I Green?
Am I green? Well, yes and no.
I've always had a disdain for environmentalists since the 1970's when I was in college. The regional electric power company was trying to get approval to build a nuclear plant. The local environmentalists were so alarmist and emotional that they had the average person believing that the nuclear plant could blow up like an atomic bomb and no one wanted an atomic bomb near them. The environmentalists weren't necessarily saying this but they weren't trying to clear up this misconception either. I decided then that environmentalists were untrustworthy in their science and used propaganda to inflame emotions. One of the early members of Greenpeace Movement, Patrick Moore, wrote an interesting article in the Wall Street Journal saying much the same.
However, the environmentalists were right about a lot of things in 1970's. We unwittingly were polluting our rivers, land, and the air much like the problems that China is experiencing now. We didn't really think about dumping textile dyes and other chemicals into rivers as a problem. After all the river washed it away or so it seemed. Under the environmentalist movement pressure we made many changes which have made for a better environment in the U.S. We banned dumping and cleaned up our rivers and air. Its not perfect but better than it would have been. Get behind a car in the morning whose catalytic converter hasn't fully heated up yet and see how the air smells. We're much better off.
So environmentalists have raised many valid concerns but as developed nations have worked to clean up the environment, its seems environmentalists have begun to reach for extremes to justify their purpose. For example, the 2008 fad concerned BPA used to harden plastics in toys and bottles. The science was poor but the environmentalists wanted to have its use banned after many years of no apparent harm in favor for other chemicals that we don't have much safety experience with. BPA was the fad of the year for 2008.
So far it doesn't seem I'm green so lets switch gears.
My type of green is not conservation but efficiency. Conservation to me means live in a log cabin and get your water from a spring. Efficiency in the green movement is what I relish. How can we accomplish the same thing or even more with less input.
Let me note several examples of what I mean.
If your gas furnace is over 20 years old, only about 50-60% of the heat produced by the burning gas actually heats your home. The other 40-50% goes up the exhaust chimney. Today's gas furnaces put 90% of the heat into your home. That's a huge difference.
Only 1% of the energy in a gallon of gasoline is used to actually move the driver. The rest of the energy is lost in inefficiencies in the engine, drive train, friction, air drag, and in moving the weight of the car. These are all areas that have opportunities for improving gasoline mileage. We're only at the beginning. Even the weight of the car can be significantly reduced by using carbon fiber composites but strength and safety would still be the same. I believe it is quite possible to create an SUV that gets 40 miles per gallon in the city maybe even 50 with existing technology without compromising the concept of an SUV. (Note I don't like SUV's. I don't think they very functional, so don't think I'm pushing the SUV but they are great for towing.) I think its possible that cars can get 60 miles per gallon or even 100 miles per gallon. Just as we had a goal to get to the moon in 10 years, I would like to see a goal of 100 miles per gallon in 10 years. Too me its not much of a stretch. I would love to see that goal achieved.
I'm for plug-in hybrids like GM's Chevy Volt. Its not the car to save GM, but its headed in the right direction. The average American only drives about 40 miles per day. The Chevy Volt will run on battery power for 40 miles and then another 300-400 miles on its gasoline engine. Yes at $40,000 it will be ridiculous expensive. That's why it won't save GM, but VCR players, CD players, and DVD players were all around $1500 when they came out. Now they practially give them away with purchases of other electronics. You have to start somewhere to get to where you want to go. I think this is totally cool. What if CD players were rejected because vinyl records did just fine at a reasonable price. It takes vision to get there.
I think its cool that Honda has a hydrogen fuel cell car that you can lease now in certain areas that works totally like a regular car (Honda FCX Clarity). It has a range of 280 miles. Honda says "The FCX Clarity is not an experimental or prototype vehicle. It is a certified, assembly line-produced car that can be driven with both pride and confidence" Who even knew the technology was this far. Of course only the nuts in Southern California can lease this car for $600 a month. Not realistic pricing for the rest of us but its getting there. Where will all the hydrogen come from. The answer is natural gas. In fact Honda has been working with Plug Power, Inc. to perfect a hydrogen production unit at home that converts natural gas into hydrogen and also creates electricity for the home.
I think the front loading washing machines that use 20-25 gallons of water instead of 40 gallons are cool. That's a hugh savings. Do we need to use water more efficiently. Why not? Why not do everything more efficiently.
Am I a green nut?
Yes I have most of our electronics on power strips that I turn off before going to bed. It doesn't take much to do and I tried to make it easy on the family. Once they turn on one of the power strips for the day it stays on until bed time so everyone doesn't get frustrated turning things off and on. Everyone adapted immediately without any complaint. I was shocked. And since most days everyone is out for the day (school, errands, work), the power strips turned off at bed time usually don't get turned back on until late afternoon. That means this simple change keeps these devices completely off the grid 75% of the time each day.
Doesn't that sound green nutty? So I guess the conclusion is I'm green, kind of.
"No single raindrop believes it is to blame for the flood." - Despair.com
I've always had a disdain for environmentalists since the 1970's when I was in college. The regional electric power company was trying to get approval to build a nuclear plant. The local environmentalists were so alarmist and emotional that they had the average person believing that the nuclear plant could blow up like an atomic bomb and no one wanted an atomic bomb near them. The environmentalists weren't necessarily saying this but they weren't trying to clear up this misconception either. I decided then that environmentalists were untrustworthy in their science and used propaganda to inflame emotions. One of the early members of Greenpeace Movement, Patrick Moore, wrote an interesting article in the Wall Street Journal saying much the same.
However, the environmentalists were right about a lot of things in 1970's. We unwittingly were polluting our rivers, land, and the air much like the problems that China is experiencing now. We didn't really think about dumping textile dyes and other chemicals into rivers as a problem. After all the river washed it away or so it seemed. Under the environmentalist movement pressure we made many changes which have made for a better environment in the U.S. We banned dumping and cleaned up our rivers and air. Its not perfect but better than it would have been. Get behind a car in the morning whose catalytic converter hasn't fully heated up yet and see how the air smells. We're much better off.
So environmentalists have raised many valid concerns but as developed nations have worked to clean up the environment, its seems environmentalists have begun to reach for extremes to justify their purpose. For example, the 2008 fad concerned BPA used to harden plastics in toys and bottles. The science was poor but the environmentalists wanted to have its use banned after many years of no apparent harm in favor for other chemicals that we don't have much safety experience with. BPA was the fad of the year for 2008.
So far it doesn't seem I'm green so lets switch gears.
My type of green is not conservation but efficiency. Conservation to me means live in a log cabin and get your water from a spring. Efficiency in the green movement is what I relish. How can we accomplish the same thing or even more with less input.
Let me note several examples of what I mean.
If your gas furnace is over 20 years old, only about 50-60% of the heat produced by the burning gas actually heats your home. The other 40-50% goes up the exhaust chimney. Today's gas furnaces put 90% of the heat into your home. That's a huge difference.
Only 1% of the energy in a gallon of gasoline is used to actually move the driver. The rest of the energy is lost in inefficiencies in the engine, drive train, friction, air drag, and in moving the weight of the car. These are all areas that have opportunities for improving gasoline mileage. We're only at the beginning. Even the weight of the car can be significantly reduced by using carbon fiber composites but strength and safety would still be the same. I believe it is quite possible to create an SUV that gets 40 miles per gallon in the city maybe even 50 with existing technology without compromising the concept of an SUV. (Note I don't like SUV's. I don't think they very functional, so don't think I'm pushing the SUV but they are great for towing.) I think its possible that cars can get 60 miles per gallon or even 100 miles per gallon. Just as we had a goal to get to the moon in 10 years, I would like to see a goal of 100 miles per gallon in 10 years. Too me its not much of a stretch. I would love to see that goal achieved.
I'm for plug-in hybrids like GM's Chevy Volt. Its not the car to save GM, but its headed in the right direction. The average American only drives about 40 miles per day. The Chevy Volt will run on battery power for 40 miles and then another 300-400 miles on its gasoline engine. Yes at $40,000 it will be ridiculous expensive. That's why it won't save GM, but VCR players, CD players, and DVD players were all around $1500 when they came out. Now they practially give them away with purchases of other electronics. You have to start somewhere to get to where you want to go. I think this is totally cool. What if CD players were rejected because vinyl records did just fine at a reasonable price. It takes vision to get there.
I think its cool that Honda has a hydrogen fuel cell car that you can lease now in certain areas that works totally like a regular car (Honda FCX Clarity). It has a range of 280 miles. Honda says "The FCX Clarity is not an experimental or prototype vehicle. It is a certified, assembly line-produced car that can be driven with both pride and confidence" Who even knew the technology was this far. Of course only the nuts in Southern California can lease this car for $600 a month. Not realistic pricing for the rest of us but its getting there. Where will all the hydrogen come from. The answer is natural gas. In fact Honda has been working with Plug Power, Inc. to perfect a hydrogen production unit at home that converts natural gas into hydrogen and also creates electricity for the home.
I think the front loading washing machines that use 20-25 gallons of water instead of 40 gallons are cool. That's a hugh savings. Do we need to use water more efficiently. Why not? Why not do everything more efficiently.
Am I a green nut?
Yes I have most of our electronics on power strips that I turn off before going to bed. It doesn't take much to do and I tried to make it easy on the family. Once they turn on one of the power strips for the day it stays on until bed time so everyone doesn't get frustrated turning things off and on. Everyone adapted immediately without any complaint. I was shocked. And since most days everyone is out for the day (school, errands, work), the power strips turned off at bed time usually don't get turned back on until late afternoon. That means this simple change keeps these devices completely off the grid 75% of the time each day.
Doesn't that sound green nutty? So I guess the conclusion is I'm green, kind of.
"No single raindrop believes it is to blame for the flood." - Despair.com
GM, Ford, and Chrysler
Let's face it. The three US car manufacturers still have a quality image problem. Whether their quality is really good now or not, the perception is still there. The other problem is their cars are boring, boring, boring.
They need to beat these perceptions and I think one way they could do it is to create an "iphone" like experience with their vehicles, dealerships, and service.
First, design vehicles that are more exciting and modern looking. Most of the US vehicles are plain and safe. The US manufacturers don't really ask their customers what they want. They just make their safest guess.
Second, let me specifically customize the car options I want online and place a order. And I mean really let me specifically choose options. No manufacturer offers this. You can't get exactly what you want. You have to buy "packages" that often have expensive things you don't want. Also, the manufacturers decide what options I can have. If I want leather seats and a satellite radio in a Honda Fit, don't tell me I have to step up to a Honda Civic. I don't want a Honda Civic, I want a Honda Fit. Don't tell me I can have any color interior in the Honda Fit as long as its black. I thought that went out with the Model T. Let people choose the options they want and stop playing the "package" game to "increase" profits. Let me order the car and deliver it fast in America not on a slow boat from China.
Third offer advanced technology. Ford is headed in the right direction with the Microsoft Sync system. Build cars that offer blue tooth cell phone integration, navigation systems, satellite radio, etc. Add intelligence for really keeping up with friends. Toyota had a team of young people design such a car that would keep you in touch but keep you eyes on the road. They employeed lots of speech recognition. Anyway do something and don't just offer it on the more expensive vehicles. Create excitement in the cars both on the exterior and interior.
Fourth make getting service easy and fast. Let me make a service appointment online and follow the status and cost online. Let me update my service profile information online. Let me see my full car repair maintenance log online.
Fifth, create customer rooms that are exciting. All car dealers miss out on major selling opportunities with their customer waiting areas. Have flat screen TVs that show cars and their features (no sound of course). Have computers available for web access. Set the default web page to engaging manufacturer web sites.
AND make all the online web technology accessible to mobile phones.
Let's all move into the 21st century please.
If the US manufacturers put some excitement into the customer experience, I think they can overcome their shoddy out of date image.
They need to beat these perceptions and I think one way they could do it is to create an "iphone" like experience with their vehicles, dealerships, and service.
First, design vehicles that are more exciting and modern looking. Most of the US vehicles are plain and safe. The US manufacturers don't really ask their customers what they want. They just make their safest guess.
Second, let me specifically customize the car options I want online and place a order. And I mean really let me specifically choose options. No manufacturer offers this. You can't get exactly what you want. You have to buy "packages" that often have expensive things you don't want. Also, the manufacturers decide what options I can have. If I want leather seats and a satellite radio in a Honda Fit, don't tell me I have to step up to a Honda Civic. I don't want a Honda Civic, I want a Honda Fit. Don't tell me I can have any color interior in the Honda Fit as long as its black. I thought that went out with the Model T. Let people choose the options they want and stop playing the "package" game to "increase" profits. Let me order the car and deliver it fast in America not on a slow boat from China.
Third offer advanced technology. Ford is headed in the right direction with the Microsoft Sync system. Build cars that offer blue tooth cell phone integration, navigation systems, satellite radio, etc. Add intelligence for really keeping up with friends. Toyota had a team of young people design such a car that would keep you in touch but keep you eyes on the road. They employeed lots of speech recognition. Anyway do something and don't just offer it on the more expensive vehicles. Create excitement in the cars both on the exterior and interior.
Fourth make getting service easy and fast. Let me make a service appointment online and follow the status and cost online. Let me update my service profile information online. Let me see my full car repair maintenance log online.
Fifth, create customer rooms that are exciting. All car dealers miss out on major selling opportunities with their customer waiting areas. Have flat screen TVs that show cars and their features (no sound of course). Have computers available for web access. Set the default web page to engaging manufacturer web sites.
AND make all the online web technology accessible to mobile phones.
Let's all move into the 21st century please.
If the US manufacturers put some excitement into the customer experience, I think they can overcome their shoddy out of date image.
Tale of Two Cities
Until 2008, I had a 1995 Taurus and a 2003 Honda Odyssey. I had each serviced at their respective dealerships. The differences between the Ford dealership and the Honda dealership were like night and day. The Ford dealership was like walking into a third world country. The Honda dealership experience was first rate.
The Ford dealership reps didn't have computers, you got out of your car in a dark cold wind tunnel area, the waiting room was dingy with an old TV, shuttle service was one time, one way only, and if you needed any type of body service (leaky sunroof) they told you to hike down to the body shop where everyone just stares at you and ignores you. (After five tries they never did fix the leaky sunroof.)
The Honda dealership has a nice enclosed bright warm area for you to get out of your car. The reps have computers with complete information about your car and the parts inventory they have on hand for repairs. Oil changes are while you wait. They even wash your car at each service. The waiting room is bright and they offer coffee, doughnuts, free newspapers, and satellite TV. Plus the shuttles run often. (The little coffee maker at the Ford dealership finally broke and they didn't replace it.) The shuttle drivers give you their business cards which has their cell phone numbers on them. You can call them directly for pick up when you need a ride back to the dealership. The Ford dealer doesn't do pickups.
From which dealership do you think I would want to buy my next car.
To be fair the Ford dealership in the final days I owned the Taurus did finally enclose an area for you to drop off your car. The reps now have computers at the drop off point, but not much else has changed. The customer waiting area has been about to be remodeled for over an year. Still nothing had happened at the time I sold the Taurus. The coffee machine was still broke, the TV was on its last legs, the furniture was still deterioating, the magazines and car brochures were from a prior year. The feeling of yuck was still strong. I did not consider a Ford for the replacement of the Taurus.
The 1995 Taurus had been a very sound car mechanically, but the rest of the car was mediocre. Knobs fell off, the sunroof leaked and couldn't be fixed, and other things failed. And I couldn't stomach the dealer any longer.
I hope things improve for the US car manufacturers but a lot has got to change if they're to survive.
The Ford dealership reps didn't have computers, you got out of your car in a dark cold wind tunnel area, the waiting room was dingy with an old TV, shuttle service was one time, one way only, and if you needed any type of body service (leaky sunroof) they told you to hike down to the body shop where everyone just stares at you and ignores you. (After five tries they never did fix the leaky sunroof.)
The Honda dealership has a nice enclosed bright warm area for you to get out of your car. The reps have computers with complete information about your car and the parts inventory they have on hand for repairs. Oil changes are while you wait. They even wash your car at each service. The waiting room is bright and they offer coffee, doughnuts, free newspapers, and satellite TV. Plus the shuttles run often. (The little coffee maker at the Ford dealership finally broke and they didn't replace it.) The shuttle drivers give you their business cards which has their cell phone numbers on them. You can call them directly for pick up when you need a ride back to the dealership. The Ford dealer doesn't do pickups.
From which dealership do you think I would want to buy my next car.
To be fair the Ford dealership in the final days I owned the Taurus did finally enclose an area for you to drop off your car. The reps now have computers at the drop off point, but not much else has changed. The customer waiting area has been about to be remodeled for over an year. Still nothing had happened at the time I sold the Taurus. The coffee machine was still broke, the TV was on its last legs, the furniture was still deterioating, the magazines and car brochures were from a prior year. The feeling of yuck was still strong. I did not consider a Ford for the replacement of the Taurus.
The 1995 Taurus had been a very sound car mechanically, but the rest of the car was mediocre. Knobs fell off, the sunroof leaked and couldn't be fixed, and other things failed. And I couldn't stomach the dealer any longer.
I hope things improve for the US car manufacturers but a lot has got to change if they're to survive.
Nancy and Harry
Article: Commentary: Stimulus bill a sorry spectacle
"It's really too bad President Obama couldn't figure out a way to jettison these two who are poster children for everything that is wrong in Washington. "
I thought this quote from the article above was funny regarding Nancy Pelosi and Harry Reid.
They're really doing their best to help President Obama fail. Right now it appears to me that Nancy and Harry are more powerful than President Obama. I hope he stands up to them soon and follows a more powerful centrist agenda.
"It's really too bad President Obama couldn't figure out a way to jettison these two who are poster children for everything that is wrong in Washington. "
I thought this quote from the article above was funny regarding Nancy Pelosi and Harry Reid.
They're really doing their best to help President Obama fail. Right now it appears to me that Nancy and Harry are more powerful than President Obama. I hope he stands up to them soon and follows a more powerful centrist agenda.
Monday, February 16, 2009
Google Flu
Article: Tracking the iPhone’s bubble of hype
Article: How does this work?
From the first article...
"Google Trends is a powerful tool. It has been used, most famously, to monitor influenza outbreaks by tracking flu-related Google searches — a epidemiological early warning sign that turns out to be more prescient, by two weeks, than the U.S. Centers for Disease Control’s surveys of 1,500 hospitals. (Google explains its methodology here, with a link to an article in Nature.)"
Makes sense that tracking what people are searching for in real time could be an early warning of flu epidemic but who would have thought that it would be better than the U.S. CDC's method by two weeks.
Interesting... I wonder what other nuggets are out there.
Article: How does this work?
From the first article...
"Google Trends is a powerful tool. It has been used, most famously, to monitor influenza outbreaks by tracking flu-related Google searches — a epidemiological early warning sign that turns out to be more prescient, by two weeks, than the U.S. Centers for Disease Control’s surveys of 1,500 hospitals. (Google explains its methodology here, with a link to an article in Nature.)"
Makes sense that tracking what people are searching for in real time could be an early warning of flu epidemic but who would have thought that it would be better than the U.S. CDC's method by two weeks.
Interesting... I wonder what other nuggets are out there.
Huh???
Article: America's Emptiest Cities
According to the article above. Greensboro is the 4th emptiest city in America per the U.S. Census bureau. If you leave out apartments, Greensboro is the 2nd emptiest city in America.
Las Vegas and Detroit lead the list but you can see that in the news video's of the many streets loaded with For Sale signs in those cities, but I don't see that here at all. There must be a mistake in their methodology.
Bizarre...
According to the article above. Greensboro is the 4th emptiest city in America per the U.S. Census bureau. If you leave out apartments, Greensboro is the 2nd emptiest city in America.
Las Vegas and Detroit lead the list but you can see that in the news video's of the many streets loaded with For Sale signs in those cities, but I don't see that here at all. There must be a mistake in their methodology.
Bizarre...
Friday, February 13, 2009
About Fort Bragg...
I mentioned being stopped by security forces at Fort Bragg in my skiing post. Of course that requires a story.
My son's troop and I went to Fort Bragg for a weekend last year. When you arrive at the entrance, everyone must exit the vehicle, open all doors, open the engine hood and the trunk. All adults must hand over their driver licences for background checks. The entrance guards who are wearing guns search the vehicle and engine I guess for bombs or whatever. Its an interesting site to see. So I thought I would take some pictures. WRONG!!!.
When a guard saw me taking pictures, he immediately stopped me. Said he was supposed to hold me for questioning. He was not kidding. He evaluated the situation and decided to have me go through every picture on my camera and delete the pictures I had taken at the entrance. I was relieved that was the satisfactory conclusion to the incident. Anyway everyone had a good laugh later at my expense.
We had a great weekend. We got to meet with the military bomb squad who allowed us to experiment with bomb disposal robots which cost $250,000 a piece. There were three guys in the unit on duty. The officer was probably around 28-30 years old. The other two were around 24 years old. These guys get called out every week to go somewhere to dispose of suspected bombs. Very sobering to see people so young doing very dangerous jobs. In fact the base had just lost one of the bomb squad in Iraq that week. We saw the parachute practice run area. We didn't get to actually do the practice because too many soldiers are away in Iraq and Afganistan. Like I would really climb the tower and go down the wire.
At times, I felt like we were in Iraq as we saw military hummers with a soldiers sticking out of the top with mounted machine guns. I think they were going to military exercises.
We saw the airborne museum and I was very surprised to see a very large glider made of canvas and light framework that was used in World War II to deliver troops and equipment to the front. These gliders could carry over 4000 lbs. (see this site for details http://www.exploringthenorth.com/gliders/history.html). I had never heard of this.
We went bowling on the base that night. It was a lot of fun. They turned off all the lights at the bowling alley and only had black lights illumating every thing. It was like one big party on a Saturday night. Soldiers, their dates, and families were all there having a great time.
We ate every meal on base eating in the same cafeteria as the soldiers. I did see one funny site. A woman soldier went up to a guy soldier, both dressed in full uniform, and gave each other a big hug. They appeared to be boyfriend and girlfriend. I just thought it was funny, nice, but funny. I'm not used to seeing soldiers in uniforms give hugs. It was cute. Both were very professional just funny to see.
I stayed out of trouble the remainder of the stay, but one of the cub scout Mom's told me of her recent visit a couple of months ago. She had heard about my getting in trouble through the grape vine and wanted to share her recent incident.
She and her 10 year old son went to Fort Bragg for him to participate in an ice hockey competition on the base. She somehow missed the main entrance, but saw a small entrance to the base. There was one soldier sitting in the booth at the entrance. She didn't know if she was supposed to stop or not. As she drove told the entrance, the soldier didn't get up and motion in any way so she drove on. Definitely WRONG unfortunately!
After she passed the entrance, several hidden military vehicles took off after her with lights and sirens blaring. She quickly realized she should have stopped and pulled over. She figured they would talk to her and then she could go on. The soldiers poured out of the vehicles with guns drawn. They got her out of the car and had her hands on the hood. She thought they were going to search her. Next thing she knew her hands were handcuffed behind her back as she laid down on the hood. They got her drivers licence and were doing a background check. She kept looking at her son in the car who was looking more than a little concerned. As the soliders sized up the situation, one of the soldiers said take the cuffs off before you freak her kid out. They established her identity and purpose and then let her go with an apology but with a reminder that they have to do their job. She recovered quickly but will always remember this somewhat funny event.
Nice to know though that our forces are on the job.
My son's troop and I went to Fort Bragg for a weekend last year. When you arrive at the entrance, everyone must exit the vehicle, open all doors, open the engine hood and the trunk. All adults must hand over their driver licences for background checks. The entrance guards who are wearing guns search the vehicle and engine I guess for bombs or whatever. Its an interesting site to see. So I thought I would take some pictures. WRONG!!!.
When a guard saw me taking pictures, he immediately stopped me. Said he was supposed to hold me for questioning. He was not kidding. He evaluated the situation and decided to have me go through every picture on my camera and delete the pictures I had taken at the entrance. I was relieved that was the satisfactory conclusion to the incident. Anyway everyone had a good laugh later at my expense.
We had a great weekend. We got to meet with the military bomb squad who allowed us to experiment with bomb disposal robots which cost $250,000 a piece. There were three guys in the unit on duty. The officer was probably around 28-30 years old. The other two were around 24 years old. These guys get called out every week to go somewhere to dispose of suspected bombs. Very sobering to see people so young doing very dangerous jobs. In fact the base had just lost one of the bomb squad in Iraq that week. We saw the parachute practice run area. We didn't get to actually do the practice because too many soldiers are away in Iraq and Afganistan. Like I would really climb the tower and go down the wire.
At times, I felt like we were in Iraq as we saw military hummers with a soldiers sticking out of the top with mounted machine guns. I think they were going to military exercises.
We saw the airborne museum and I was very surprised to see a very large glider made of canvas and light framework that was used in World War II to deliver troops and equipment to the front. These gliders could carry over 4000 lbs. (see this site for details http://www.exploringthenorth.com/gliders/history.html). I had never heard of this.
We went bowling on the base that night. It was a lot of fun. They turned off all the lights at the bowling alley and only had black lights illumating every thing. It was like one big party on a Saturday night. Soldiers, their dates, and families were all there having a great time.
We ate every meal on base eating in the same cafeteria as the soldiers. I did see one funny site. A woman soldier went up to a guy soldier, both dressed in full uniform, and gave each other a big hug. They appeared to be boyfriend and girlfriend. I just thought it was funny, nice, but funny. I'm not used to seeing soldiers in uniforms give hugs. It was cute. Both were very professional just funny to see.
I stayed out of trouble the remainder of the stay, but one of the cub scout Mom's told me of her recent visit a couple of months ago. She had heard about my getting in trouble through the grape vine and wanted to share her recent incident.
She and her 10 year old son went to Fort Bragg for him to participate in an ice hockey competition on the base. She somehow missed the main entrance, but saw a small entrance to the base. There was one soldier sitting in the booth at the entrance. She didn't know if she was supposed to stop or not. As she drove told the entrance, the soldier didn't get up and motion in any way so she drove on. Definitely WRONG unfortunately!
After she passed the entrance, several hidden military vehicles took off after her with lights and sirens blaring. She quickly realized she should have stopped and pulled over. She figured they would talk to her and then she could go on. The soldiers poured out of the vehicles with guns drawn. They got her out of the car and had her hands on the hood. She thought they were going to search her. Next thing she knew her hands were handcuffed behind her back as she laid down on the hood. They got her drivers licence and were doing a background check. She kept looking at her son in the car who was looking more than a little concerned. As the soliders sized up the situation, one of the soldiers said take the cuffs off before you freak her kid out. They established her identity and purpose and then let her go with an apology but with a reminder that they have to do their job. She recovered quickly but will always remember this somewhat funny event.
Nice to know though that our forces are on the job.
Circus rebooted...
Went to the circus with the family Wednesday night. Yes, its been a busy week, skiing, circus, homework.
It was interesting to me to note that the circus format has been updated since we last attended two years ago. The show has added lots of special lighting and digital special effects. The show is more upbeat and fast paced with music. The new format however did not detract from the circus performance. I would say it complemented and updated the circus format for todays kids. Very well done.
It was a great show. Lots of magic too. The general story running through the show was the circus trying to work around a bad guy named gravity who kept showing up. They finally tricked Mr. Gravity into a glass box which they hosted up in the air. A curtain dropped on the box, sparks flew, the curtain fail off, and then there was a live albino tiger in the glass box. Mr. Gravity had been turned into a tiger. They also had a regular tiger performance with about 9 tigers in the areana doing various tricks.
My favorite act took place near the ceiling where a man and woman were walking upside down. It was incredible you couldn't see what was keeping them from falling. They would kick, dance, and walk around all upside down. Great trick!
All in all a great circus. Well done and well enjoyed.
It was interesting to me to note that the circus format has been updated since we last attended two years ago. The show has added lots of special lighting and digital special effects. The show is more upbeat and fast paced with music. The new format however did not detract from the circus performance. I would say it complemented and updated the circus format for todays kids. Very well done.
It was a great show. Lots of magic too. The general story running through the show was the circus trying to work around a bad guy named gravity who kept showing up. They finally tricked Mr. Gravity into a glass box which they hosted up in the air. A curtain dropped on the box, sparks flew, the curtain fail off, and then there was a live albino tiger in the glass box. Mr. Gravity had been turned into a tiger. They also had a regular tiger performance with about 9 tigers in the areana doing various tricks.
My favorite act took place near the ceiling where a man and woman were walking upside down. It was incredible you couldn't see what was keeping them from falling. They would kick, dance, and walk around all upside down. Great trick!
All in all a great circus. Well done and well enjoyed.
Me ski?
My son and I went skiing this past Sunday in West Virginia with my son's boy scout troop. We had a great time.
Each year, the ski resort, Winterplace, has a scout day each month. Scouts and their family members can ski for half price. For 50 bucks you get ski equipment, ski lessons, and lunch. Its a great deal. Maybe too great a deal. A lot of people show up and it can take 2 hours of waiting in line to get your equipment, but we've learned to avoid this process by showing up really early. We got our equipment right away and were out on the slopes by 8:30.
This is our third year going and I met my goals for this year. Each year I try to add more skill. My goal this year was to get off the bunny slopes and go down a gentle trail half way up the mountain. I succeeded! Even though the trail is gentle, the edge is a steep dropoff which lends to the fear factor. You wouldn't get too hurt if you went over the edge. There are trees to catch you before rolling down the mountain side, but it still makes you wary. One of my son's school friends was there and did go over the edge. He came to school the next day with a sprang ankle and crutches so my fear is probably justified.
I also learned how to stop quite well this year. Just getting to the ski lift to go up the mountain is a challenge in itself with some slopes steeper than the bunny slopes. This is where the better stopping skills come in, but I did it. My son continues to improve as well though he's not as adventurous as me.
There are some definite break your neck trails there. I'm fascinated to watch people go down such steep slopes. I"m also amazed at how quickly little kids learn to ski. They don't give ski poles to anyone under 10 years old and these kids do great.
Apparently a lot of family members come and make a day out of it. The lunch room stays full of people all day. The lodge provides music groups and they have a Karoke competition. People bring their own coolers and set up areas of the room for their groups. It gets quite crowded but is fun.
I don't know if scouts is expanding my son's horizons but it sure is expanding mine. I would never have skiied if not for his troop. Since he's joined the troop, I've been skiing, mountain biking, canoeing, been stopped by security forces at Fort Bragg, played with bomb disposal robots, etc. Lots of fun.
Definitely been worth it.
Thursday, February 12, 2009
state of the union
I was surprised to hear President Obama make the comment the other day that "unions were not part of the problem but were part of the solution".
Somehow I couldn't reconcile this in my brain. I couldn't think of any obvious examples of unions being the solution in the last 10 years but could think of several problems.
Part of the problem at GM, Ford, and Chrysler are the expensive union benefits that make these manufactorers already $1500 in the hole on each vehicle in comparison to their foreign competitors. Part of the problem with the public school system is the resistance of the teacher unions to new ideas and changes. Part of the rigidity in businesses with unions are union rules that one person who does one kind of job can't pitch in to help someone else doing a different kind of job. The unions seem to be made for another time long ago when America's Industrial Age produced mass products. As the future moves toward highly customized products in niche markets, its difficult to see how unions will survive.
Somehow I couldn't reconcile this in my brain. I couldn't think of any obvious examples of unions being the solution in the last 10 years but could think of several problems.
Part of the problem at GM, Ford, and Chrysler are the expensive union benefits that make these manufactorers already $1500 in the hole on each vehicle in comparison to their foreign competitors. Part of the problem with the public school system is the resistance of the teacher unions to new ideas and changes. Part of the rigidity in businesses with unions are union rules that one person who does one kind of job can't pitch in to help someone else doing a different kind of job. The unions seem to be made for another time long ago when America's Industrial Age produced mass products. As the future moves toward highly customized products in niche markets, its difficult to see how unions will survive.
I won...
President Obama squandered some of his political capital by letting Nancy Pelosi and Harry Reid write the stimulus package.
You would expect a stimulus package to at least spend 60 to 70% of the money in the next 18 months to get the economy going again. Instead only 15% of this 790 million dollar package will be spent in the next 18 months. The Democratic party basically used the stimulus package as a cover to implement all the spending programs they've been wanting for years, items that should have been debated in the regular government budget. This stimulus package includes many new "programs". The stimulus package should not have been used to start new government programs and agencies. That's for public debate weighted with can we afford it.
When the Republicans questioned the specific details of the package, President Obama didn't respond with counter arguments on the items he just said "I won" and you didn't. Nancy Pelosi said "we won. we wrote the stimulus package". The public is uneasy with this package as polls show falling support for it and increasing concern.
President Obama has created an excellent economic advisory team. He should have worked with them to develop ideas for the stimulus plan instead of letting Nancy and Harry write whatever they wanted.
If President Obama doesn't separate himself from Nancy Pelosi and Harry Reids' ideas, he may find himself facing a Republican controlled congress in two years. Nancy Pelosi and Harry Reid have led the congress over the last two years to public approval ratings lower than those of President Bush. Now they're helping President Obama with his.
You would expect a stimulus package to at least spend 60 to 70% of the money in the next 18 months to get the economy going again. Instead only 15% of this 790 million dollar package will be spent in the next 18 months. The Democratic party basically used the stimulus package as a cover to implement all the spending programs they've been wanting for years, items that should have been debated in the regular government budget. This stimulus package includes many new "programs". The stimulus package should not have been used to start new government programs and agencies. That's for public debate weighted with can we afford it.
When the Republicans questioned the specific details of the package, President Obama didn't respond with counter arguments on the items he just said "I won" and you didn't. Nancy Pelosi said "we won. we wrote the stimulus package". The public is uneasy with this package as polls show falling support for it and increasing concern.
President Obama has created an excellent economic advisory team. He should have worked with them to develop ideas for the stimulus plan instead of letting Nancy and Harry write whatever they wanted.
If President Obama doesn't separate himself from Nancy Pelosi and Harry Reids' ideas, he may find himself facing a Republican controlled congress in two years. Nancy Pelosi and Harry Reid have led the congress over the last two years to public approval ratings lower than those of President Bush. Now they're helping President Obama with his.
Tuesday, February 10, 2009
Education under pressure
I mentioned in one of my earlier posts about finding the best professor lectures for each topic in a course, video recording those lectures, and making them available online for students to watch instead of attending class. I was thinking in terms of universities doing this as a way to make education more efficient. I still haven't thought completely through that idea.
BUT then I had an even scarier thought. What if students started doing this? What if a group of students taking the same class took turns video taping class lectures using a Flip camera or other device and then posted the lectures for the other students who then wouldn't have to attend the class. Being able to review the lecture several times would help in learning and getting notes down. What if students posted their notes and other students could rate which notes were best. What a revolution in learning would take place. What a battle would take place. Professors and Universities would shut this down. It might take a semester or two before they caught on but once they did there would be a fight and lawsuits.
This is going to put a lot of pressure on the academic community. What should a university look like in the future and how will academic research be preserved.
Interesting times...
BUT then I had an even scarier thought. What if students started doing this? What if a group of students taking the same class took turns video taping class lectures using a Flip camera or other device and then posted the lectures for the other students who then wouldn't have to attend the class. Being able to review the lecture several times would help in learning and getting notes down. What if students posted their notes and other students could rate which notes were best. What a revolution in learning would take place. What a battle would take place. Professors and Universities would shut this down. It might take a semester or two before they caught on but once they did there would be a fight and lawsuits.
This is going to put a lot of pressure on the academic community. What should a university look like in the future and how will academic research be preserved.
Interesting times...
Thursday, February 5, 2009
Now they want to send us to India
Article: IBM to laid-off: Want a job in India?
Above is a link to a CNNfn article describing how IBM is offering to send soon to be laid off employees to India and other countries if they want to go. At least they would have a job. I hope this doesn't develop into a sweeping fad.
Its bad enough that my own work has been outsourced to India three times, but now if companies want to actually send us to work there. I'm sure at the local rate. The ULTIMATE OUTSOURCE. What a deal.
But I'm not bitter. ;-)
Above is a link to a CNNfn article describing how IBM is offering to send soon to be laid off employees to India and other countries if they want to go. At least they would have a job. I hope this doesn't develop into a sweeping fad.
Its bad enough that my own work has been outsourced to India three times, but now if companies want to actually send us to work there. I'm sure at the local rate. The ULTIMATE OUTSOURCE. What a deal.
But I'm not bitter. ;-)
Hate to admit it.
I hate to admit it but I have to use reading glasses which was a royal pain before I bought the folding pair of reading glasses you see in the picture to the left which can be carried with you in a case that clips to your belt. (I've included the glasses in my Amazon recommended items on the right side bar. )I never thought I would need them. I've had better than perfect vision (20/20) all my life and my distant vision is still quite outstanding. But slowly but surely everyone needs them as you age. Apparently the lens in the eye and the muscles that control it become less flexible as you age, therefore you can't focus as well on close up things. You don't need the reading glasses for far away like a camera everything far away doesn't need special focusing. Everything beyond 20 feet is basically infinity for both a camera and your eye.
For regular eyesight problems, the eye ball focal length is too short or too long. Glasses correct for this problem and the person can see both close up and far away with the same glasses. With the reading glasses problem, the lense is working less well. Reading glasses just provide help for close up but are useless for far away. So your constantly putting on your reading glasses and taking them off. With this you never have your reading glasses with you. They get left everywhere and lost often.
You end up everywhere without your glasses. Its difficult to have a romantic dinner with your wife when you can't read the menu or the bill. You end up buying the wrong products in the store when you can't read the packaging between the products you are comparing.
Now the good part. My brother-in-law had these glasses and recommended them to me. They cost a measley $16.99. They are very sturdy and work well. At that price you could afford to buy several.
I now always have my glasses with me. My life has been greatly improved for only $16.99.
Thanks brother-in-law!
Republican's wounded brand
In recent weeks we've been hearing the Republicans talk a lot about fiscal responsibility and making sure the stimulus package is responsible and has no wasteful spending. Every time I hear them talk about it I have the same reaction as in the cartoon above.
The Republicans were not true to their principals and they paid the price the last two years. They ruined their party's brand. It will take a while to repair it.
When "Buy American" is dangerous
I've very concerned about the "Buy American" provisions in the stimulus bill that Congress is working on. One of the major factors identified as intensifying the Great Depression was America's use of tariffs on imported goods to encourage the creation of American jobs. This triggered a world trade war early in the depression and accelerated the destruction of trade and American jobs.
The current stimulus bill that Congress is working on says that the stimulus money can only be spent on American produced materials. Europe and Canada are already threatening to challenge. I guess we don't really learn from history and thereby commit the same mistakes over again.
The Republicans have challenged the "Buy American" language and the Democrats have slightly modifed the language to say that if buying American cost more than 25% above the foreign competitor then a waiver may be applied for to buy from the foreign source. Like that will fix things.
We'll see what happens with the final vote.
Interesting note
The Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act which created the tariffs on foreign goods was passed in June 1930 when their stock market was down 40% from its peak in August 1929.
Its interesting to note that our stock market is down slightly worse as of today at 43% (DOW 8,044 on February 5 at 1:27 pm) from our peak of 14,164 in October of 2007. I hope we're not making a similar mistake.
"History may not repeat itself, but it does rhyme a lot" --Mark Twain
The current stimulus bill that Congress is working on says that the stimulus money can only be spent on American produced materials. Europe and Canada are already threatening to challenge. I guess we don't really learn from history and thereby commit the same mistakes over again.
The Republicans have challenged the "Buy American" language and the Democrats have slightly modifed the language to say that if buying American cost more than 25% above the foreign competitor then a waiver may be applied for to buy from the foreign source. Like that will fix things.
We'll see what happens with the final vote.
Interesting note
The Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act which created the tariffs on foreign goods was passed in June 1930 when their stock market was down 40% from its peak in August 1929.
Its interesting to note that our stock market is down slightly worse as of today at 43% (DOW 8,044 on February 5 at 1:27 pm) from our peak of 14,164 in October of 2007. I hope we're not making a similar mistake.
"History may not repeat itself, but it does rhyme a lot" --Mark Twain
Its the smallest things...
Its the smallest things it seems some time that are most difficult to understand. For example how can the smallest virus with only an RNA that contains 4 genes for 4 proteins take over a host cell and make it not only replicate the virus' RNA but also make the virus' protein container and package the replicated RNA in that container. How do some viruses inject their DNA into a host cell and then the virus code just hides in the cell and replicates into new cells for long periods of time and then at some later point trigger the production of the virus. If we could gain some insight into how that code takes over a cell, could we gain some insight in how to stop the runaway code in a cancer cell.
How in the world does the virus code build a protein container structure. I've always found structure in the biological world to be a puzzle. Why do we look the way we do. Why aren't we just big bags of protoplasm rolling around like an amoeba. For example when a bone cell replicates how does the new cell know to stay where it is and not grow in some random direction. Why does a femur stay a femur shape and not turn into a blob as the bone cells replicate themselves. What keeps the structure? How do these structures form in the first place? How does it all work? I can't begin to comprehend it.
How in the world does the virus code build a protein container structure. I've always found structure in the biological world to be a puzzle. Why do we look the way we do. Why aren't we just big bags of protoplasm rolling around like an amoeba. For example when a bone cell replicates how does the new cell know to stay where it is and not grow in some random direction. Why does a femur stay a femur shape and not turn into a blob as the bone cells replicate themselves. What keeps the structure? How do these structures form in the first place? How does it all work? I can't begin to comprehend it.
Presence and Intelligence
I think the two major directions for technology over the next 5 to 10 years are "presence" and "intelligence".
For presence, I see two directions. One direction is building technology and networking so that I always have access to all my stuff (music, video, books, documents, games, internet, etc.) and it is continually available to me wherever I go. Everything is online and every tool I use to access it provides the same access whether I use a cell phone, netbook, desktop computer, etc.
The second presence direction is to make it easy for you to be virtually present anywhere. I remember reading a paper in 1989 describing a future situation where you could sit outside on a beautiful day and attend a virtual class through your tablet computer. The class would start at a specific time, you would connect through your tablet and see a video picture of your professor who would then teach. Any materials the professor used (interactive demos, etc.) would show up in separate windows while you watched the professor teach. Class discussion could occur and whoever was talking would have their video picture move to the front. Basically, you could attend classes without having to physically be there. (Except for class discussion, this begs the question of why we need the same professor giving the same lecture every year. Why not find the best professor lectures on each topic, get videos of them, and then put them on the net. Why pay all the professors to teach the same lessons each year. But this is a topic for another post about how to make education more efficient. Yeah, that idea scares me to.) I know that the Univerisity of Phoenix and others do this distance learning but the video, interactive technologies, and networks are still quite primitive but that is what will change over the next 5 to 10 years. When my wife and I had our first child in 1995, I kidded then that I didn't know if our child would go to college. I said the college might come to him. Of course hat would kind of take the fun out of attending college.
The second major direction is intelligence, making things "smarter" like cars, cell phones, computers, the electrical grid, etc. There are cars already that parallel park, brake if you get too close to another car, control braking pressure at each wheel to avoid slipping and skidding, etc. It will probably take 20 years before we have a car that can truly drive itself but until then we'll be adding intelligence along the way. Cell phones will get smarter about where you are and what you want and how it can help you. I'm already amazed by many of the iPhone applications. Who would have thought that you could hum a song to your iPhone and it tell you what the song is. There are some truly clever technology people out there with great imaginations. Who knows what will be added in the coming years.
I look forward to these exciting possibilities.
For presence, I see two directions. One direction is building technology and networking so that I always have access to all my stuff (music, video, books, documents, games, internet, etc.) and it is continually available to me wherever I go. Everything is online and every tool I use to access it provides the same access whether I use a cell phone, netbook, desktop computer, etc.
The second presence direction is to make it easy for you to be virtually present anywhere. I remember reading a paper in 1989 describing a future situation where you could sit outside on a beautiful day and attend a virtual class through your tablet computer. The class would start at a specific time, you would connect through your tablet and see a video picture of your professor who would then teach. Any materials the professor used (interactive demos, etc.) would show up in separate windows while you watched the professor teach. Class discussion could occur and whoever was talking would have their video picture move to the front. Basically, you could attend classes without having to physically be there. (Except for class discussion, this begs the question of why we need the same professor giving the same lecture every year. Why not find the best professor lectures on each topic, get videos of them, and then put them on the net. Why pay all the professors to teach the same lessons each year. But this is a topic for another post about how to make education more efficient. Yeah, that idea scares me to.) I know that the Univerisity of Phoenix and others do this distance learning but the video, interactive technologies, and networks are still quite primitive but that is what will change over the next 5 to 10 years. When my wife and I had our first child in 1995, I kidded then that I didn't know if our child would go to college. I said the college might come to him. Of course hat would kind of take the fun out of attending college.
The second major direction is intelligence, making things "smarter" like cars, cell phones, computers, the electrical grid, etc. There are cars already that parallel park, brake if you get too close to another car, control braking pressure at each wheel to avoid slipping and skidding, etc. It will probably take 20 years before we have a car that can truly drive itself but until then we'll be adding intelligence along the way. Cell phones will get smarter about where you are and what you want and how it can help you. I'm already amazed by many of the iPhone applications. Who would have thought that you could hum a song to your iPhone and it tell you what the song is. There are some truly clever technology people out there with great imaginations. Who knows what will be added in the coming years.
I look forward to these exciting possibilities.
Wednesday, February 4, 2009
New Aquarium!
I recently setup a new aquarium for my daughter. I didn't know I was getting into a major science experiment.
The store person told me it takes about 6-8 weeks to setup and "cycle" an aquarium before you can put many fish in it. I thought all you did was put water in it, wait a couple of days, and then add all your fish. Wrong.
The store person explained. There is a nitrogen cycle that must setup before adding many fish. You can add one or two starter fish after a couple of days to start the cycle but it takes the 6 weeks to balance out.
The story goes like this (see chart above). Fish give off ammonia through their gills, pee, and poop. The level of ammonia rises in the aquarium. Ammonia is toxic to fish. As the ammonia increases, bacteria start growing that convert the ammonia to nitrites. Nitrites are also toxic to fish. With increasing nitrites different bacteria start growing that convert the nitrites to nitrates. Nitrates are much less toxic to fish though can be a problem if they get to high. After the aquarium is "balanced", you should not be able to detect ammonia or nitrites. You will have nitrates which are kept under control by changing out 25% of the water monthly.
For the cycle period, I had to basically buy a chemistry set to test for ammonia, nitrites, and nitrates daily until the aquarim is balanced. Every night I get out my test tubes and chemicals to do the mixing and testing. I feel like a chemist each night.
I'm not complaining, I've actually enjoyed the science, learning about the ecosystem, and how I test and maintain it. You might say that my daughter's pets have become my new hobby.
We started with two starter fish, zebra danios. Starter fish are fish that can more easily handle the stresses of the unbalanced environment. Other fish would stress and die during the early period as the ammonia and nitrites built up before falling to zero. So far they are doing well. After 10 days, the ammonia level is starting to build, no nitrites yet. The water is a little cloudy. The forums says its just a bacterial bloom that should clear up in a few days.
We can't add more fish until the end of February and then you only add a few fish at a time. Each time you add fish, the ammonia levels increase again until the bacteria growth catches up.
So we're watching, testing, and waiting.... It requires a lot of patience.
Funny cartoon
I saw this cartoon in the morning newspaper and had a good laugh. Yes, I still read a paper newspaper now you have a good laugh.
Monday, February 2, 2009
How did this happen?
How did this happen I ask myself. As someone who has always been on the leading edge of new ideas and technologies, how did I end up now behind everyone else.
I've always pursued new things. For example, I had a debit card back in 1987 when 99% of the population had never heard of them. I even had great difficulty trying to explain to people what a debit card was. In 1991, I was using instant messaging on the university's mini computers to date my wife before the World Wide Web or America Online even came into existence. I jumped on Satellite TV, TIVO, and Internet phone early in the game, but somehow I totally missed the last five years.
I've completely missed the boat on blogging, social networking, texting, rss feeds, etc. Not only have I been out of touch, I find myself having trouble understanding what these technologies are and what they do. Where have I been.
I have some theories. I've always had a theory that once you get in the throes of being married and raising several kids, you are so busy that you don't have time to experiment. That's why when growing up, you perceive your parents as out of touch. They are so busy, they don't have time to keep up with what's going on and you do. Over the last five years, trying to get even one hour of personal time a week has been difficult. So that's one possibility.
My mother always told me that it seems each generation is made for its specific time and I feel that somewhat. I was on the leading edge during my younger years and now I find myself bungling with the new technologies, but I hope this "predestination" isn't so. At least I'm going to fight it. Happily, I now have a Facebook page. Sadly, I don't have a clue what to do. I've even considered getting the "Facebook for Dummies" book. That shows how pathetic I am at this point.
My last theory is that I had lacked the need for these newer technologies. I'm characteristically an introvert. I don't have a need to communicate with a lot of people. Most of these new technologies are communication centered. I can understand younger people using these technologies to keep up with their friends through high school, college, and starting their careers. I wish these technologies had been available for me to have kept up with my friends in these same situations. However, once you and all your friends get married, at least back when, everyone became so busy and moved so many different places that you lost touch. Maybe that doesn't happen now with the new technologies.
So the bottom line is I am starting this blog as one of several steps to catch up at least to the middle if not near the front of new ideas. I'm tired of being at the rear. Of course its going to be a difficult trek. All my usual friends and family don't use the new technologies for the most part, but I'll try to drag them along.
I try to teach my kids that the greatest failure of all is to do nothing.
So here we begin.....
I've always pursued new things. For example, I had a debit card back in 1987 when 99% of the population had never heard of them. I even had great difficulty trying to explain to people what a debit card was. In 1991, I was using instant messaging on the university's mini computers to date my wife before the World Wide Web or America Online even came into existence. I jumped on Satellite TV, TIVO, and Internet phone early in the game, but somehow I totally missed the last five years.
I've completely missed the boat on blogging, social networking, texting, rss feeds, etc. Not only have I been out of touch, I find myself having trouble understanding what these technologies are and what they do. Where have I been.
I have some theories. I've always had a theory that once you get in the throes of being married and raising several kids, you are so busy that you don't have time to experiment. That's why when growing up, you perceive your parents as out of touch. They are so busy, they don't have time to keep up with what's going on and you do. Over the last five years, trying to get even one hour of personal time a week has been difficult. So that's one possibility.
My mother always told me that it seems each generation is made for its specific time and I feel that somewhat. I was on the leading edge during my younger years and now I find myself bungling with the new technologies, but I hope this "predestination" isn't so. At least I'm going to fight it. Happily, I now have a Facebook page. Sadly, I don't have a clue what to do. I've even considered getting the "Facebook for Dummies" book. That shows how pathetic I am at this point.
My last theory is that I had lacked the need for these newer technologies. I'm characteristically an introvert. I don't have a need to communicate with a lot of people. Most of these new technologies are communication centered. I can understand younger people using these technologies to keep up with their friends through high school, college, and starting their careers. I wish these technologies had been available for me to have kept up with my friends in these same situations. However, once you and all your friends get married, at least back when, everyone became so busy and moved so many different places that you lost touch. Maybe that doesn't happen now with the new technologies.
So the bottom line is I am starting this blog as one of several steps to catch up at least to the middle if not near the front of new ideas. I'm tired of being at the rear. Of course its going to be a difficult trek. All my usual friends and family don't use the new technologies for the most part, but I'll try to drag them along.
I try to teach my kids that the greatest failure of all is to do nothing.
So here we begin.....
Subscribe to:
Comments (Atom)